Most diplomats are judged by their ability to stay out of the news, but Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack made headlines this week. Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha, he stated, “America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there.” Accordingly, the United States is changing its posture in the Middle East. The old arrangement, under which Americans provided security for the region’s oil exports, is being restructured. “What’s happening in this administration is not an abandonment—it’s a message for realignment,” Barrack added.
Barrack did not announce a policy shift but described a transformation many Americans have long sought. U.S. military efforts enabled regional allies to break Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, yet if those allies could maintain Middle Eastern stability and allow oil to flow freely, it would relieve a massive burden for Washington. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to counter Houthi threats near its territory and Red Sea shipping lanes demonstrate how difficult this goal remains without first defeating Iran.
The Doha remarks did not signal immediate withdrawal; the United States remains actively engaged in the region, with forces continuing to protect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a third aircraft-carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are en route as intense U.S.-Israeli preparations for post-midterm strikes on Iran intensify.
American military might undermines Iran’s strategy of impoverishing the world through resource bottlenecks. Thanks to service members’ resolve and technical capabilities that bypass the Strait, more oil is now leaving the Gulf than before the Iran conflict began. While gas prices remain elevated, increased output should help lower them over time.
America’s regional allies increasingly question U.S. steadfastness as foreign policies of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden diverge in complexity. With Iran’s threat growing, leaders have sought to mitigate abandonment risks—a trend amplified by Trump’s willingness to confront Iran compared to predecessors, though his successors may adopt greater caution if political costs rise.
Over the past decade, allies pursued closer ties to America’s regional order, seeking stronger security guarantees. Last year, President Trump designated Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally and pledged U.S. defense of Qatar in an executive order. Many Abraham Accords nations also began coordinating openly with Israel on defense matters.
Saudi Arabia has diversified its security arrangements by signing mutual defense pacts with Pakistan and Turkey in August, activating them after Houthi forces—supported by Iran—captured coastal areas earlier this month. The Houthis are bombing Saudi airports and civilian infrastructure while intensifying their maritime embargo in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Egypt is now deploying troops to defend Saudi territory, and British fighters are en route to protect cities from air attacks.
The battle against the Houthis could reveal how far allies can operate without substantial U.S. backing. Yemen remains a challenging conflict zone; even with limited U.S. intelligence and logistical support, the Saudi-led coalition faltered a decade ago. Israel restored deterrence in 2025 by targeting Houthi leadership after repeated missile strikes, but Pakistan or Turkey are unlikely to collaborate effectively with Israel’s approach.
This coalition is held together primarily by fear of Iran. Historically, Iran, Turkey, and Egypt have competed for regional preeminence. Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth has elevated it above Egypt as the most prominent Arab state, yet it cannot counter Iran or Turkey unilaterally. Turkey’s history of regional dominance and ties to the Muslim Brotherhood concerns many Arab leaders; a security pact with Ankara reflects Riyadh’s desperation rather than strength.
The coalition likely lacks the capacity to defeat Iran, and its existence stems from allies’ doubts about U.S. commitment to their interests. A Yemen setback would not benefit Washington, yet hobbling Iran on its own territory could foster conditions where allies manage with less American assistance. That outcome would transform Barrack’s statement from cause for alarm into a call for shared vigilance.