Harvard sociologist Robert J. Sampson’s new book “Marked by Time: How Social Change Has Transformed Crime and the Life Trajectories of Young Americans” presents a critical reevaluation of criminological theories through decades of longitudinal research.
The study, part of the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN), tracked 6,000 children from birth into adulthood across multiple cohorts. Sampson’s findings indicate that participants born in 1980 were twice as likely to be arrested during their peak offending years compared to those born in 1995.
These disparities persist even after accounting for socioeconomic status and self-control levels, suggesting broader social conditions significantly influence criminal behavior. The research attributes these differences to shifts in law enforcement practices and crime rates over time. Earlier cohorts experienced higher policing intensity and greater crime levels, while later generations faced less intense policing and lower crime rates.
Sampson argues criminology has traditionally focused on individual characteristics or social status without adequately considering how societal changes affect crime patterns. The study has implications for criminal justice policy, particularly in developing risk-assessment tools that must account for generational differences.
Charles Fain Lehman, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, reviewed Sampson’s work.