In the United States, democratic socialists and Hamas sympathizers often march arm in arm. Abroad, news that China is exporting surface-to-air missiles to Iran reveals the extent of the alliance between Islamist groups and the Chinese Communist Party. The domestic red-green coalition threatens to immiserate a generation of Americans, while its international counterpart could do the same.
Decades have seen controversy over how Beijing coordinates with other anti-American powers such as Moscow and Tehran. Many note the minimal ideological overlap between clerical rule advocates and aggressively atheistic Communists. Others highlight strategic differences: China seeks to supplant Russia’s dominance in Central Asia—a move that alarms Moscow—while Iran watches closely for encroachments on its territory. All three are major oil and gas producers, but China’s vast manufacturing sector makes it the only net importer of the group.
Some hoped that China would moderate Putin’s ambitions against Ukraine to protect its crucial European export market and prevent Iran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a move that could spike global oil prices. However, these hopes have proven illusory. While Beijing has not been vocal in support of Iran’s campaign, exports of ballistic missile technology before this year’s fighting and continued shipments today demonstrate that Xi Jinping is actively backing Tehran’s actions as he does Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
From one perspective, the Strait of Hormuz closure underscores Xi’s strategic focus on economic self-reliance. His “Made in China 2025” initiative aims to monopolize rare earths and other critical sectors to prepare for disruptions in global energy markets and U.S. pressure. Similarly, he seeks independence from foreign technology.
Global energy markets have remained relatively stable, partly due to China’s drastic reduction in oil purchases—Chinese imports in June dropped over 40% compared to the previous year. However, Beijing’s strategic petroleum reserves, which some estimates suggest are three times larger than the United States’, remain a mystery. Smuggling operations between Iran and China hint at efforts to mask continued dependency.
Xi’s crisis preparation has fallen short of expectations. Chinese economic data—so unreliable that former top official Li Keqiang admitted creating his own indices—report 5% growth for early this year, though the U.S. economy may have grown faster than China’s since Mao Zedong’s death.
Beijing remains far from self-sufficiency. In a war with the United States, Washington could severely restrict Chinese trade: the Navy might halt tankers and freighters, while the Treasury would block maritime insurance for Chinese shipments. Such measures would likely deter most traders from engaging in conflict zones.
Xi’s push to replace imports is slowing China’s economy as firms duplicate work of better competitors elsewhere. His policies are also forcing Americans and their allies to develop homemade versions of lower-skilled technologies—a necessary step for national security but with significant costs.
In different ways, both Chinese and Iranian regimes claim to have unlocked a secret path to paradise. So far, the fruits of their labor have been misery and death—and they are preparing for more.